EURUSD head and shoulders

Let’s take a quick look at EURUSD 4 hour chart.

Pair broke second important trend line, following break of one in early August. There is more than obvious head and shoulders pattern with neckline around 1.27 being broken. Target for pattern is around 1.21 to 1.22, so we should see more on downside.

EURUSD is in very strong down trend and it looks like it is going to stay like that.

Trade with trend.

End of the week reading

I believe in reading. It is a form of communication, which brings fresh ideas and new perspectives or involves reader in self-discussion which, in turn, leads to more work on current projects. That’s why I share (almost on weekly basis) links to the people who, in my opinion, contribute in positive manner to trading blogosphere.

 Here is this week’s selection of people and ideas:

 Afraid to Trade:

 Triple Fibonacci Confluence Reveals TrappedSP500 – Key Levels to Watch for Breakout

 Au.Tra.Sy. blog:

 Super Trend Following Index?

 the State of Trend Following in July

 Bespoke:

 S&P 500 P/E Ratio

 Country Default Risk

 CXO:

 Testing Engulfing Candlesticks

 MarketSci:

 The (NEW) State of Short-Term Mean-Reversion:July, 2010

 The Big Picture:

Boomer Bust

 The Kirk Report:

 Justification Mode

 The Talent Code:

 How to Be a Late Boomer

Friday reading

Afraid to Trade:

Color Chart and Major Support Line to Watch in Gold

Will it Hold or Break? Major Resistance Revealed on the Three Indexes

Au.Tra.Sy blog:

Trend Following Wizards – June 2010

Bespoke:

The US Lags

International Market Snapshot

CXO:

Success Factors for High-frequency Pairs Trading

David Fry:

Earnings and Punchbowl Beat Poor Data

Quantifiable Edges:

Low Volume Bounces Like Monday’s Have Fared Poorly in Recent Times

SMB:

Don’t Give Away An Edge

The Big Picture:

Ego: Illusionist, Trader’s Nemesis

The Talent Code:

Why Being Terrible is Kind of Wonderful

Mid-week reading

Afraid to Trade:

SPX Tests Critical Daily Resistance Cluster July 13

The Support Shelf and Trading Range to Watch in AAPL

Bespoke:

Down 5 Days, Up 5 Days

Country Stock Market Performance

S&P 500 6-Day Winning Streaks

Woodshedder:

Buy the SPY After 5 Consecutive Higher Closes?

The Big Picture:

The Startup Business Cycle

4 Secular Bear Markets

The Kirk Report:

Everything Evens Out

VIX and More:

The Risk Trade

Reading to kick star new week

Afraid to Trade:

Upside Levels to Watch on the Daily SP500 July 8

Market Internals Matter! A Closer Look at the Three June Market Reversals

Bespoke:

Earnings Season Starts Monday

David Fry:

Light Volume Temptations

Derek Hernquist:

When Should I Break the Rules?

MarketSci:

The Death Cross

Reading the Markets:

Who is a trading talent?

The Kirk Report:

Independent Trading: Pros & Cons

The Talent Code:

The 0.25 Second That Makes All the Difference

Top40 update

Last week was one to forget – in case you are holding Top40/Satrix 40. All in all, over last 9 days Top40 closed only on two occasions higher than previous day and both of those bars were not convincing at all. Market is still holding long term support around 22900, but will see what happens during new week.

Oscillators dropped last week and now they are in oversold position: Stochastic is around 10, while Relative Strength Index is around 40. At the same time, MACD is struggling to break 0 and good thing about MACD is triple positive divergence, which is quite visible now. Positive divergences can be spotted on RSI as well.

Coming week can bring us, as always, two scenarios: First one is bounce from support at 22900 and test of upper trend line and 200 simple moving average which is around 24500. On the bearish side, break of 22900 could take us quickly to 21700 support from August and September 2009.

Moving averages, which help us to determine long, medium and short-term trends: 

• long-term (200sma) - DOWN
• intermediate (89sma) - DOWN
• short-term (10ema) - DOWN

Trade with trend!

 

Weekend reading

Afraid to Trade:

1930 Dow Comparison Hitting Too Close to Home

Writing the Obituary for the Stock Market

The Collapse of the EURCHF and the Relation to the SP500

Gold’s Strange Top Heavy Chart with Negative Divergences

Hidden SP500 Fibonacci Confluence Last Hope for Bulls

Bespoke:

Reaching the Halfway Mark

Percentage of Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Averages Back Below 10%

Bearish Sentiment at Highest Levels Since July 2009

Percentage of S&P 500 Stocks Above 50-Days Down to 4%

Google (GOOG) In Uncharted Territory

CXO:

Stock Market and the National Election Cycle

A Slinky (Short-term Reversion) Effect?

David Fry:

Incredible Stock Market Performance

Woodshedder:

What you NEED to Know about The Death Cross

Scott Bleier:

A disconnect between Wall Street & Main Street?

MarketSci:

Independence Day and the Stock Market

Reading the Markets:

The growth curve of highly successful businesses

The Big Picture:

Dark Cross History

UK Public Spending by Government Department

Psychology Cheat Sheet

Vix and More:

VIX Showing Signs of Progressive Desensitization