Top40 added 194 points last week or some 0.76%. Week started and ended with red days and we had three green days in the middle. Thursday was futures close out and that brought us nice up day, with new year-to-date high - only 2 points above the previous one, but that counts too.
Volatility is still on the low side. Average ATR for last 5 days is only around 1.2%, so in terms of volatility we are re-visiting conditions of end of December or very early January, when most of the traders were not participating in market.
Indicators are in overbought position and there are no visible divergences.
Stochastic is very close to 100 and on Thursday’s close it recorded 98.262. RSI smacked against 70 line, as that line very seldom gets breached. MACD is solidly above 0 level.
There is potential double top on the chart, but it is still far away from confirmation. Level around 26000 is very strong support for now and final battle between bulls and bears is going to be fought around that level. Many long term investors consider 25922 on end of the day bases, as level where bears will surrender their defence. If Top40 closes above 25922 it will signal to them that the end of secular bear market is in place and beginning of new secular bull market is underway. By itself that means that many stop losses will be triggered around that level. We should just wait and see what is going to happen.
Last week brought strong Rand which broke below 10.00 for EURO and by many global strategists that strength will continue.
Next week will bring us two-day Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting that will result with interest rate decision on Thursday 25th of March around 15:00.
Moving averages, which help us to determine long, medium and short-term trends:
- long-term (200sma) - UP
- intermediate (89sma) - UP
- short-term (10ema) - UP
Trade with trend!